The United States can destroy far more than Iran can. Iran only needs to keep Trump from turning that power into a political victory as November approaches and the cost at home keeps rising.

Hours after Donald Trump said talks with Iran were going well, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at American forces.

U.S. Central Command said every missile was intercepted. No casualties or damage were immediately reported.

Tactically, the attack failed.

Politically, it may have landed exactly where Tehran wanted it.

Trump had spent the day saying the United States was in a strong position. He warned that if Iran refused a deal, the United States could destroy Pickaxe Mountain, bridges and power plants.

Iran denied seeking new talks.

Then came the missiles.

The operation was almost certainly being prepared before Trump spoke. Central Command also says Iran directed more than 30 drone attacks during the previous 72 hours, so the supposed pause was never especially peaceful.

The Iranian government has lost its supreme leader. Its military and civilian infrastructure have been hammered. Thousands of Iranians have died. If its remaining leaders make concessions immediately after Trump threatens to destroy more of their country, they risk looking as though they knelt.

So Iran keeps demonstrating agency.

Trump threatens a bridge. Iran threatens a ship.

Trump announces progress. Iran denies the talks.

Trump pauses the bombing. Iran reminds everyone that a pause granted by Trump is not the same thing as peace accepted by Iran.

Iran cannot defeat the United States in a conventional military contest. It cannot match American air power, naval power, technology or money.

Even an intercepted missile accomplishes something. It forces the United States to use defensive weapons. It keeps bases on alert. It frightens shipping companies and insurers. It moves oil markets. It places the war back on every television screen just as Trump is trying to talk about negotiations.

Trump originally suggested the war would last four or five weeks.

It has lasted five months.

Only one in three Americans now supports it. 69 percent say Trump has failed to explain its objectives clearly. Four in ten Republicans agree.

Eighteen American service members have died.

Gas now averages more than $4 a gallon, up from roughly $3 before the war began.

Iran has tried to influence American elections before. U.S. intelligence concluded with high confidence that its 2020 campaign was intended to undercut Trump’s reelection.

Iranian leaders understand our elections. They understand gas prices. They understand congressional majorities. They understand that every American casualty creates questions Trump would rather not answer.

Time is becoming more expensive for Trump.

The closer Republicans get to November, the more every missile, funeral, gas bill and failed ceasefire becomes part of the campaign. Four House Republicans have already joined Democrats to pass another resolution directing Trump to halt the war. Losing either chamber would bring investigations, funding fights, subpoenas and much stronger congressional resistance.

The United States is trying to produce surrender through overwhelming force.

Iran is trying to produce concessions through prolonged cost.

Trump needs a victory.

Iran needs to prove it has not knelt.

Trump is running against November.

Iran is running against collapse.

The United States has the bombs.

Iran has the clock.

EDW•