Donald Trump said he could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and keep his voters. After everything they’ve stood by him through, I think he might have been right. [1]

But I think the fucking ballroom is going to cost him, and I want to say that before Tuesday.

These people filled stadiums for him. They bought the hats, flew the flags, argued with their families, and believed him when he said he was going to make their lives better. Some had given up on everybody else. They gave him another chance.

Now they’re trying to afford groceries, and he keeps showing them his ballroom.

The heckler at Monday’s Mississippi rally who yelled, “Shove that ballroom up your fat ass,” got right to it. I laughed, but I also think that’s the frustration he should be paying attention to. [2]

I’ve been saying this for a while. Around here, I’m seeing fewer flags, fewer hats, fewer trucks covered in Trump. The shine seems to have worn off a little. People wanted help with gas and groceries. They’ve heard plenty about what he wants to build.

Look at South Carolina. Trump is going back for the second time in two weeks because Republicans have a Senate race to worry about there. Defending places they normally win is pulling money and attention away from races in Michigan, Georgia, and Minnesota. [3]

That tells me plenty. They’re in trouble, and their campaign schedule shows they know it.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at 32 percent. An October ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found 72 percent of Democratic voters absolutely certain to vote, compared with 65 percent of Republicans. [4][5]

I read those numbers, but I’m watching for something a poll answer can miss. A person can defend Trump when somebody asks and still be tired of defending him. They can say they support the ballroom and feel considerably less excited about getting out to vote for another Republican.

I think that’s where this is going to hurt. Some of the people who’ve tolerated everything else are going to look at all that gold, look at their bills, and decide they have other things to do on Tuesday.

He can still draw a crowd down south. I also wonder how much he needs those crowds himself. He loves a rally, and he’s good at it. He knows how to get people laughing, how to get them cheering. I think he’d happily do that all day. I wonder how eager he is to walk into a place where people want answers he hasn’t got.

Today’s economic report showed consumer spending rising in dollars but flat after inflation. People were spending more without buying more. That’s a problem a ballroom makes very easy to understand. [6]

Then RFK Jr., on his cooking show, recommends cheaper cuts of beef and says his own favorite is ribeye. He’s also suggested liver as an affordable option. [7][8]

People trying to feed their families already know about cheaper cuts. They know what’s on sale. They know how to change dinner because the thing they came for costs too much. They’re doing this every week. They were hoping the people running the country would make it a little easier.

Instead, here comes another look at the ballroom.

Healthcare is getting harder to afford, too. New Medicaid restrictions have taken coverage from some legal immigrants, including refugees and trafficking survivors. Reporting today projects another roughly 15–16 percent increase in ACA marketplace premiums for 2027. The bill each household gets will depend on its plan and subsidies. [9][10]

I spent eleven years in medical practice administration. I support universal healthcare. People should be able to get care. They should be able to change jobs or start a business and keep their families covered. We already pay premiums, deductibles, copays, and taxes. I want us arguing about how to use that money to get everybody cared for.

Taking coverage away from people is going in the wrong direction. Building a ballroom while they’re worried about paying for treatment is a hell of a thing to keep putting on television.

I’m also watching what this administration is doing with ballots.

Here in Washington, DOJ wants ballots set aside from 405 people it suspects registered without citizenship. Secretary of State Steve Hobbs rejected the demand on October 28, saying a preliminary review found U.S. citizens on the list and that ballots could not be withheld without individualized proof of ineligibility. One person on the list last voted in 1994. In California, a judge rejected a similar request involving as many as 20,000 people. DOJ said it would appeal. [11][12][19]

If someone voted illegally, investigate it and prove it. Protect everyone else’s vote while you do. These are people’s ballots, and casting suspicion over thousands of them days before an election is serious.

Democrats have something to answer for in Alaska, too. Reporting based on campaign texts suggests Mary Peltola’s campaign helped recruit another Dan Sullivan to run against Senator Dan Sullivan. Her campaign denies involvement. [13]

If that’s what happened, shame on them. The legal questions can be sorted out. Trying to win by confusing voters is fucking shady, and I’m tired of being expected to tolerate shady when it helps the people I’d rather see win. We’re asking people in the middle to trust us. Win fair.

Going after James Comey again looks like another bad decision. The third prosecution effort involves alleged disclosures from 2016. His lawyers dispute the allegations and the procedure prosecutors used to try to beat the statute of limitations. DOJ defends that procedure. [14]

Comey’s response: “It would almost be funny if it weren’t such an appalling abuse of the Department of Justice.” [15]

I think he’s better at this than the people coming after him. He knows the institution, he knows the process, and he knows how to say something people will remember. They keep giving him a reason to talk. I expect they’re going to regret it.

Iran worries me a lot more.

AP reports that American officials have warned allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes after the election and possible Iranian retaliation. The diplomats describing those warnings said Trump had made no final decision. [16]

If Republicans get hammered next week, I’m concerned about where his anger goes. He’ll still have enormous military power. I worry that losing influence at home could make him more determined to show everybody he’s in charge somewhere else. I hope I’m wrong about that.

Congress has war powers and controls military funding. Those responsibilities need to mean something, especially now. I want the people with the authority to question him doing it before American service members and Iranian civilians pay for another escalation. [17]

Netanyahu’s bloc has lost its parliamentary majority, but he remains caretaker prime minister while coalition negotiations play out. He is still raising the prospect of renewed joint action against Iran. I’d like to see accountability there, too. For now, both men still have the power to make very consequential decisions. [18]

Which brings me back to the people who gave Trump that power.

They’ve shown him an extraordinary amount of loyalty. Plenty will keep showing it. But I think he’s asking too much of some of the people who wanted him to fix things for them. There’s only so many times you can watch a man admire his new ballroom while you’re cutting things out of your own life.

They may never tell you they’re done. They may keep defending him right up until they leave that ballot on the counter.

I think he could have gotten away with Fifth Avenue. I think the ballroom is going to cost him.

EDW•